Counterpoint is forecasting a decline in global cellular IoT module shipments for 2023, but bouncing back in second half 2024
A quarterly report found an Internet of Things (IoT) sector slowing down in 2023’s third quarter.
Released Jan. 4, Counterpoint’s Global Cellular IoT Module and Chipset Tracker by Application report found global cellular IoT module shipments declined two percent year-over-year in Q3 2023. The reasons cited for the slowdown included weaker demand, rising interest rates and cautious spending from enterprise IoT players in this market, according to Counterpoint, a global research firm specializing in products in the technology, media and telecom industry.
While the 5G market’s share in the global cellular IoT module market crossed five percent, indicating traction for 5G adoption, applications are currently limited due to the higher prices and adoption only in three markets—router/CPE, PC and automotive.
Positive Growth Segments
“The top five applications, encompassing smart meter, automotive, POS, router/CPE and telematics, accounted for over 60 percent of total cellular IoT module shipments this quarter,” commented Mohit Agrawal, associate director, Counterpoint. “Notably, only the smart meter and router/CPE segments observed positive growth in shipments, with other applications experiencing a decline.
Agrawal pointed out that India was the only region to register positive growth in the global cellular IoT module market.
“Conversely, the market outside of China and India saw a steeper decline compared to China. Contrary to industry expectations, the market is not gaining momentum,” he warned.
Top Five Mixed
To that end, research firm reported Quectel, the market leader, and Telit Cinterion, one of the leading international vendors, experienced a decline in shipments. This trend mirrors the prevailing conditions in both the Chinese and global IoT module markets.
Two companies vendors among the top five —China Mobile and Fibocom—the had positive growth, driven by smart meter, asset tracker and POS for China Mobile and router/CPE applications for Fibocom. China Mobile recently established a subsidiary, BILIN’ZHILIAN, to accelerate its module business growth.
2024 Forecast
Looking ahead, Soumen Mandal, senior research analyst, Counterpoint, is forecasting global cellular IoT module shipments to drop a 5 percent total for 2023 but is bullish long term.
“Demand revival is expected by the second half of 2024, with substantial growth predicted for 2025, coinciding with the mass adoption of 5G and 5G RedCap,” Mandal said.
“In the long term, the cellular IoT module market holds promise and applications such as smart meter, router/CPE, POS, automotive and asset tracking will be driving most of the growth for this market.”
Key Takeways:
- Global cellular IoT module shipments declined two percent year-over-year in Q3 2023.
- Demand revival is expected by the second half of 2024, with substantial growth predicted for 2025