How RFID Will Reach Mass Adoption

According to Geoffrey Moore, author of Crossing the Chasm and other important books on the technology adoption life cycle, new technologies follow a clear and consistent path to mass adoption. First, visionaries see the great potential of a new technology and jump on board, but the vast majority of companies do not follow their lead. Instead, they wait, because the technology seems immature and risky. And the technology falls into the chasm.

Over time, companies with a compelling business problem that no other technology can solve adopt the new technology and solutions begin to mature. At some point, the technology crosses the chasm between visionaries and the "early majority." Eventually, enough companies in one industry adopt the technology that it hits critical mass and just about everyone in that industry adopts it. From there, it spreads to other industries and eventually reaches mass adoption.

Intel has created an overhead reader that is designed to be easy to deploy and use, and is relatively inexpensive. It remains to be seen if that solution will lead to industrywide adoption. (Illustration: iStockphoto)

Retail is one industry that has embraced RFID more than all others, because virtually all retailers share a common business problem—inaccurate inventory data and resulting out-of-stocks. But only a dozen or so retailers have deployed RFID in all their stores, and the vast majority of retailers have not begun using RFID in any serious way. So what needs to happen for RFID to reach mass adoption in retail and then spread to other industries?

Moore says five conditions must exist for a technology to reach mass adoption:
• A global standard
• A problem no other technology can solve
• The "whole" product (integrated solution)
• Critical mass of end users
• A "gorilla" the market can embrace (a dominant technology provider)

In retail, there is a global standard for RFID. Virtually all retailers RFID-tracking clothing, footwear and accessories are using passive ultrahigh-frequency technology based on the ISO 18000-6C standard. There is a problem no other technology can solve (cost-effectively): lack of inventory visibility and accurate inventory data.